Bitcoin Volatility 2017
In the fourth quarter of 2017 the big bitcoin rally has ended with a loud
A lot of South Africans got swept up in the rally, but only a few people actually made any money from it.
But of course, there are some people that have made fortunes with it.
In December 2017 bitcoin had fallen by almost 60% from its highs of around R 235 793.78 but it is still up well over 680% over a rolling 12-month period, trading in early March around the R 123 791.73 mark.
The truth is that most people who get involved in Bitcoin in the second half of last year have made no money and in some cases, have lost some money.
The simple reason was they got involved too late. Most of the trading was in November and December when the Bitcoin was near its all-time highs. The price of the cryptocurrency has fallen drastically since then.
So how did the bubble burst?
At the beginning of 2017 bitcoin was trading at around R 11 789.69, more than double the price of R 5 305.36 it was worth at the end of 2015.
Because it trades on various exchanges there is sometimes different prices levels on different exchanges.
During 2016 it started picking up momentum after it had been under the R 5426.25 mark for some time.
The price of bitcoin had taken out the previous high of roughly R 14 147.62 in February 2017 it made in 2013.
The people who had bought back and were patient enough to hang on were in the green again on their investment and started talking about bitcoin.
News did the rounds that people were making money when it started picking up again, and some brave people started to get involved by buying the currency. Their eagerness was catching and the hype started.
Six months into 2017 trading two-and-a-half times the price it was trading at the beginning of the year which was trading at R 30 145.86 and by November it was trading at R 94 317.51.
Anybody was regarded as an idiot and non-believer in a technology if you offered a word of caution about the risks of buying into parabolic moves.
People who had no idea what bitcoin is were putting money into it by late November and thinking that the whirlwind pace at which the price was going up would go on forever.
In December, it had reached a record high of around R 235 793 78 and it came crashing down….
Prediction of future prices
The price of Bitcoin was in the vicinity of R 141.47 at the beginning of 2013 and reached a high of around R 14 147.62 in December.
An increase of 10 000% in price – much bigger than the 2 000% increase we saw in 2017.
We saw then a bubble develop and then the bubble had burst.
Prices fell during 2014 and 2015 and erased 85% of the gains made and back to a low R 122.14 in 2015.
The price in 2015 ranged between R 122.14 and R 536.91 before starting to trend higher again in 2016.
The Previous high in 2017 of R 14 147.62 was taken out and again we saw a parabolic move up to R 235 793.78.
The prediction is that we will see an 80% to 90% correction in the price over a year period, followed by a range-bound price for a year.
The prices going upwards in the third year to take out the high of R 235 793.78 in the fourth year, follow by another move may be up to R 235 7937.75, if not higher.
A daring Prediction but established in the belief that patterns will repeat itself.
In 2013 as in 2017, bitcoin was in every mainstream financial media as its unbelievable rally left people overwhelmed.
There was a lot of hype – a key factor for any bubble.
And in the blockchain network, there is the ever-growing network of miners/nodes.
If more people invest in bitcoin mining hardware, the value of bitcoin must increase in order for it to be economically possible.
It sounds Crazy, but when you look at the graph made public in 2014, you can see that as the difficulty of mining bitcoin increased, so did its price.